Methodology · MMI-2.0.0

How the Magnate Index is built

Every artist on the bourse gets a score from 0 to 1000, recomputed from live public data each time they are scraped. It answers two questions: how big is this artist now, and which way are they heading.

01Inputs

Live data from six platforms

Scraped through Context.dev, server side, on a rolling cycle: every artist is revisited roughly every 103 minutes. Each reading is stored with its source URL and time, so the index can be traced back to a page anyone can open.
Spotify
monthly listeners, top-track streams, portrait
Deezer
fans
Apple Music
catalogue size, releases in 12 months, days since last release
YouTube
subscribers, videos
Last.fm
listeners, scrobbles
Bandsintown
followers, upcoming shows
kworb.net
Spotify listeners day over day and all-time peak, for the ~590 biggest artists
Artists scored
103
Live readings
1,152
Listeners covered
1.54B
Avg. momentum
×1.004

Not on the list? Type any artist into the search on the bourse: if they are not tracked yet, Magnate finds them on Deezer and Apple Music, scrapes all six platforms live and adds them to the index. From then on they are refreshed like everyone else.

02Size

The base score

Four groups, each scored 0–100 and weighted. A platform with no data never counts as zero: its weight is shared out among the groups that do have data, and Presence shows how much evidence is behind the number.

Reach

40%

How many people the artist reaches. Each audience count is log-scaled against a ceiling, so going from 10K to 100K counts as much as going from 1M to 10M.

  • Spotify listeners · cap 60M
  • Deezer fans · cap 5M
  • Last.fm listeners · cap 6M
  • YouTube subs · cap 30M
  • Bandsintown followers · cap 3M

Engagement

25%

How hard the audience listens, not just how big it is.

  • Top-track streams · log, cap 2B
  • Scrobbles per Last.fm listener · ÷150

Activity

20%

Whether the artist is working: releasing, touring, posting.

  • Days since last release · 0 at 2 years
  • Releases in 12 months · ÷4
  • Upcoming shows · ÷20
  • YouTube videos · log, cap 400

Presence

15%

How many of the six platforms the artist could be verified on. It also tells you how much data backs the score.

  • Platforms found ÷ 6
log_scale(x, cap) = ln(1 + x) / ln(1 + cap), clamped to [0, 1]
base = 1000 · Σ wᵍ·groupᵍ / Σ wᵍ   (over groups that have data)
03Direction

The momentum multiplier

Two artists with the same audience are not the same investment if one is surging and the other is fading. Momentum reads the last 20 days of audience readings and turns five signals into one multiplier, kept between ×0.80 and ×1.30 so it can move the base by up to −20% or +30%, never more.
momentum = clamp(1 + spike + trend + acceleration + breadth + peak − volatility, 0.80, 1.30)
factor 01

24h listener spike

Δ audience over 24h ÷ usual daily swing
max effect
±8%

A sudden jump in listeners (a viral clip, a TV slot, a surprise drop) is measured against the artist's own normal day-to-day movement. +2% means nothing for an artist who swings 3% a day, and a lot for one who usually moves 0.2%.

cap · tanh(z / 2), z = Δ24h / max(0.5%, σ)
factor 02

20-day trend

log-linear growth over 20 days
max effect
±12%

A least-squares line through the log of daily audience closes. A steady climb with a clean fit (high R²) counts in full; a noisy series that happens to end higher counts for half.

cap · tanh(g₂₀ / 10%) · (0.5 + 0.5·R²)
factor 03

Acceleration

7-day pace vs 20-day pace
max effect
±3%

Is growth speeding up or fading? The last week's slope, projected over 20 days, is compared with the full-window slope.

cap · tanh((g₇→₂₀ − g₂₀) / 5%)
factor 04

Platform breadth

platforms rising − platforms falling, over 7 days
max effect
±4%

Real momentum shows up everywhere at once. When Spotify, Deezer, Last.fm, YouTube and Bandsintown all move the same way, the signal is worth more than a single-platform blip.

cap · (up − down) / n
factor 05

Peak proximity

Spotify listeners ÷ all-time peak (since 2023)
max effect
±3%

An artist at their all-time high is in a different place from one at a third of it. Full credit at the peak, neutral at 60% of it, the full penalty at 20% or below.

cap · clamp((L / peak − 60%) / 40%, −1, 1)
factor 06

Volatility

std. dev. of daily log returns
max effect
−6%

Erratic audiences are riskier. Above 3% average daily swing, every extra point of volatility costs 1.5 points of multiplier.

−min(cap, 1.5 · max(0, σ − 3%))

Signals start neutral (0) and switch on as history builds up. The 24h spike uses our own reading from about a day ago. For the ~590 biggest Spotify artists, kworb.net's daily listener table (also scraped through Context.dev, every 6 hours) supplies the 24h change and the all-time peak from day one. Trend and volatility need at least three daily readings spread over three days or more. Breadth needs two platforms with a 7-day comparison. The primary series is Spotify monthly listeners, or the platform with the longest history if Spotify is missing. tanh keeps every factor smooth and bounded, so one freak reading cannot break the scale.

04Overlay

The news pulse

Context.dev searches recent press and the wider web for each artist. Headlines that name the artist are sorted into categories and turned into points. The pulse is shown next to the index (“news +12 → 704”), not mixed into it, so you can always see the data-only score.
Sold out
+18
Award
+14
Release
+10
Live / Tour
+8
Romance
+5
Controversy
−16
Press
+2
  • ◆ Recency: full weight under 30 days, half under 90, a quarter after that. Undated web results count at 0.6.
  • ◆ One story cannot flood the pulse: repeats in the same category are halved each time.
  • ◆ At most six stories, and the total is capped at ±60 points.
  • ◆ Reference and profile pages (Wikipedia, streaming profiles, lyrics sites) are not news and are ignored.
05Live

Worked example

The tracked artist whose momentum is moving their score the most right now, straight from the database.
Skepta
SKEP
Skepta
Reach85/100× 40%
Engagement91/100× 25%
Activity37/100× 20%
Presence5/6 platforms× 15%
Base score769
24h listener spike+2.7%
20-day trendwarming up—
Accelerationwarming up—
Platform breadthwarming up—
Peak proximity+2.9%
Volatilitywarming up—
Momentum×1.056
Magnate Index812/1000

Momentum from 1 days of daily readings.

06Read this

What the index is not

Indicative only

It describes public audience data. It is not a valuation, a forecast or a promise of returns, and it is not investment advice.

Public numbers only

Platform counters can be wrong, delayed or gamed. If a platform can't be verified for an artist, it is left out, never guessed.

New artists start flat

Momentum needs history. A newly discovered artist starts at ×1.000 and builds a full 20-day picture as daily readings come in.

See it live on the bourse
Spin through 103 scored artists, or search for anyone.
Open the bourse